From Foreign-Led to Local-Driven: The New Landscape of Singapore’s Prime Condominium Market in 2025

Your 2025-update overview is largely aligned with what recent data and reporting reveal — and I can add some refinements and nuance, based on the latest (2024 and early 2025) information.

✅ What matches — and is confirmed by data

• Foreign demand has plunged after the ABSD hike

• After Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) for foreigners was raised from 30% to 60% on 27 April 2023, condo sales to foreigners dropped sharply. From May 2023–April 2024, foreigners bought just 306 units — down from 1,064 units the prior year. (The Straits Times)
• As a share of total condo sales, foreign buyers’ proportion fell from about 5.4% in 2022–2023 to 1.8% in 2023–2024. (singapore.house.world)
• In the prime district — Core Central Region (CCR) — the decline was especially stark: foreigners’ share of condo sales dropped from about 14% in the 12 months before ABSD hike to ~6% after. (The Straits Times)
• CCR condo sales volume also dropped sharply — from 4,215 units sold before the hike to 2,672 units after: a fall of ~36.6%. (singapore.house.world)

These confirm your point about a “sharp decline in foreign purchases … especially in prime markets.”

• Local/PR buyers now dominate transactions

• According to 2024 data, Singaporean buyers (citizens) made up a rising proportion of non-landed private home sales. For all regions, their share grew to 82.5% in 2024, while foreign buyers fell to ~1.4%. (Savills PDF)
• In the CCR specifically, as of end-September 2024, Singaporean buyers accounted for ~76% and Singapore PRs ~19% of non-landed home sales; foreign (non-PR) buyers were just ~5.3%. (The Business Times)

So your “shift in buyer demographics” — from foreign investors toward locals/PRs — is well borne out by recent data.

⚠️ Where your summary could use adjustment (or greater nuance)

• Price and market-activity dynamics are more mixed than a simple slowdown + “resilient prices”

• For luxury (top-end) condos in the CCR, resale activity has slowed significantly. In 2024 only 21 resale units sold above S$10 million — a drop from 36 in 2023 and 56 in 2022. (Malay Mail)
• The sharp fall in high-end resale volume suggests demand softening at the uppermost price bands — meaning “prices may hold firm” is not guaranteed across the board. (Malay Mail)
• Meanwhile, for non-landed homes in CCR overall, price growth has slowed. From Q2 2023 to Q4 2024, cumulative price increase was ~5.5% — lower than in other regions such as RCR or OCR. (ongkonghwee.sg)

Thus: while a few luxury trophy units may still fetch high prices, overall price resilience cannot be assumed — especially if supply builds or local demand dampens.

• The sales-volume drop is not uniform across regions — and other segments are absorbing demand

• While CCR non-landed home sales fell ~20% in 2024 vs 2023, sales in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) edged up ~4%, and in the Outside Central Region (OCR) surged ~32%. (ongkonghwee.sg)
• This suggests that buyers — especially locals — are shifting toward more affordable or lower-taxed regions when shopping for non-landed private homes.

Hence, it’s less a blanket collapse across the private property market, more a redistribution of demand toward less premium/suburban areas.

🔮 What to watch in 2025 (and where the risks/opportunities lie)

• Foreign demand likely to stay weak — but selective interest may endure

• Given the 60% ABSD remains in force, and foreign buyer share remained minimal (~1.3%) in Q4 2024, the deterrent effect is still strong. (Savills PDF)
• However, some foreign buyers may still enter selectively — particularly those eligible for ABSD remission under certain free-trade agreements. (The Straits Times)
• Therefore, top-end or marquee developments may continue to attract ‘deep-pocketed’ foreigners or expats, but overall foreign contributon to volume will likely remain muted.

• Local demand — especially in RCR/OCR — may cushion the market, but price growth may moderate

• As seen in 2024, demand has shifted toward more affordable non-central homes; this trend may continue in 2025, especially if more households upsize or upgrade from public housing.
• Given slower price growth in CCR and redistribution of demand, developers and sellers may moderate pricing, or focus on value-driven condos rather than ultra-luxury.
• If new supply (especially outside CCR) increases, it could provide alternatives and relieve pressure on price appreciation — possibly leading to stabilization or slight softening, rather than a spike.

• The high-end resale/luxury segment remains vulnerable — especially for ultra-luxury and trophy homes

• Given the sharp fall in ≥S$10 million resales, liquidity in that segment is thinning. (Malay Mail)
• Unless macro conditions improve (e.g., foreign wealth inflows, more expats, weaker ABSD deterrent), some luxury units may struggle to find buyers, possibly leading to price discounts or longer listing times.

• Policy recalibrations remain a wild card — but no signs yet of rollback for foreign-buyer ABSD

• As of end-2024, proposals from some developers and agencies suggested a “recalibration” of ABSD for foreigners buying very expensive CCR homes (e.g., over S$5 million) to ease the disproportionate impact on luxury segment. (ongkonghwee.sg)
• But there is no public indication that the government will reverse or lower the 60% ABSD soon. The overall tone among analysts is that foreign demand will remain depressed in 2025, barring structural policy change. (The Straits Times)

Hence, unless ABSD is relaxed, foreign-driven demand will likely stay low — reinforcing the shift toward locals, PRs, and more affordable segments.

🧮 Refined 2025 Outlook — more balanced than a “crash,” but with clear structural shifts

Based on recent data, here’s a refined projection for 2025 for prime and overall private housing:

• Volume: Total non-landed private home sales likely to remain stable or grow modestly, buoyed by locals — but CCR prime-condo–area transactions may stay subdued.
• Price: Expect moderate price appreciation overall (especially outside CCR) — but moderation or slight softening in luxury/resale CCR segment.
• Buyer profile: Predominantly local buyers and PRs; a small, selective foreign/expat cohort, but not enough to restore foreign-dominated sales.
• Supply reaction: Developers likely to channel launches toward RCR/OCR and middle-to-upper mid-price ranges; fewer new CCR luxury launches unless pricing or demand environment improves.
• Risk factors: Prolonged low foreign demand, economic headwinds, interest-rate shifts, or oversupply — particularly in OCR/RCR — could dampen price growth or lead to soft patches.

✅ Conclusion — your 2025 assessment remains valid overall, with some adjustments

Your overall conclusion — that the 2023 ABSD hike has “profoundly affected prime condominiums” and shifted demand toward locals and less-central markets — is strongly supported by 2024/early 2025 data. What’s more evident now is the internal rebalancing: rather than a uniform market decline, there’s a redistribution of demand and pricing power across segments (CCR vs RCR/OCR, luxury vs mass-premium).

If you like — I can run a forecast model projecting price ranges and volumes for CCR, RCR and OCR over 2025–2027, under various interest-rate and policy scenarios.
Do you want me to build that for you now?