Singapore Property Market Pulse: Q1 2026

Market Intelligence | Singapore Residential Property | March 2026 CEA Licensed · mychoicehomez.com | 6 min read

The Headline Numbers

Singapore's private property index posted its ninth consecutive year of gains in 2025 — approximately 3.4% for the full year, according to UOB Economics & Markets Research. This follows 3.9% in 2024, 6.8% in 2023, and 8.6% in 2022.

The direction is consistent. The pace is decelerating. That is not a warning sign — it is a normalisation from the post-pandemic surge years.

Breaking down by segment (full-year 2025, per available URA data):

• Landed: +7.6% full year, with significant Q4 strength
• Non-landed CCR: +1.9% full year, with Q4 softness (-3.5% QoQ)
• Non-landed RCR: +1.6% full year
• Non-landed OCR: +3.2% full year

OCR outperformed CCR in 2025 — a direct reflection of the HDB upgrader demand story that defines this market cycle.

Nine consecutive years of private price gains is the headline — but the story underneath is about where in Singapore those gains are concentrated and where they are not. CCR condo losses 2026 documents the regional divergence in detail: why OCR has outperformed CCR by 27 percentage points over a decade, and what that means for buyers deciding where to deploy capital in 2026.

New Launch Performance: 2025 in Review

2025 was a strong year for new launch absorption. Of the 15 best-selling new home launches in 2025, nine achieved sales of over 90% — a clear signal of broad-based demand rather than a handful of standout projects. EdgeProp.sg

Key benchmarks:

• Skye at Holland (666 units, UOL/CapitaLand JV): 99% sold
• LyndenWoods (343 units, CapitaLand): 94% sold at S$2,450 psf average
• The Orie (777 units, CDL/Frasers/Sekisui): 94% sold at S$2,704 psf average
• River Green (524 units, Wing Tai): 88% at launch, 92% by Feb 2026
• Zyon Grand (706 units, CDL/Mitsui): 87% sold at S$3,050 psf average
• Lentor Central Residences (477 units, HLH/GuocoLand/CSC): 93% sold at S$2,200 psf, now 100% sold

Developers sold approximately 10,620 new private homes (excluding ECs) in 2025, with PropNex forecasting 3%–4% price growth for 2026. EdgeProp.sg

The 2026 Supply Picture

Private home completions are expected to rise from approximately 5,200 units in 2025 to roughly 7,000 units in 2026, as projects launched during the post-pandemic surge reach TOP. At the same time, the number of new launches is forecast to dip from 26 projects in 2025 to approximately 17 in 2026, with total new supply falling by nearly 30% from about 11,400 units to roughly 8,100 units. Stacked Homes

This creates a specific dynamic: more completed homes entering the resale and rental markets simultaneously, but fewer new launches competing for buyer attention. For buyers who prefer new launches, the choice in 2026 is narrower but potentially cleaner — fewer distractions, stronger individual project visibility.

River Modern (GuocoLand, 455 units, launched March 2026) is already the year's benchmark — best-selling non-landed new launch in Singapore by both unit count and percentage sold. The next major launch anticipated: River Valley Green Parcel C (tender ~April 2026, earliest launch ~H2 2027).

The Interest Rate Story

UOB Research (January 2026) forecasts:

• 2 more US Fed rate cuts in 2026
• End-2026 SORA 3M forecast: approximately 1.32%
• End-2026 SOFR forecast: approximately 3.23%

The SORA-SOFR spread — which widened unexpectedly after the April 2025 "Liberation Day" tariff announcements as capital fled to Singapore as a safe haven — is beginning to normalise. This means Singapore borrowers are paying below the US rate benchmark, and that advantage is expected to persist through 2026.

For a S$1.5M mortgage at 75% LTV (S$1.125M loan), the difference between 2023 peak SORA-linked rates (~4%) and projected end-2026 rates (~1.9%) represents approximately S$1,250/month in reduced debt servicing — meaningful for buyers who were on the margin of TDSR eligibility.

Three Demand Drivers to Watch

UOB's framework for Singapore residential demand rests on three structural drivers. Here is their current status:

Household income: Singapore's GDP grew 4.8% in 2025, with income gains broadly distributed. GDP forecast to moderate to approximately 2.6% in 2026 as tariff impacts filter through key trading partners. Income growth is expected to slow — not reverse.

Household formation: Marriage rates and household formation remain stable. HDB BTO completions are rising (approximately 18,000 units expected in 2025, per HDB), which provides the first-home base from which upgraders eventually enter the private market.

Household liquidity: Singapore household deposits are elevated and rising. Leverage is historically low. Household balance sheets are not stressed. This is the demand profile of a market that can sustain moderate price growth without forced selling or distress.

The Key Risk to Monitor

The most consequential external risk is not interest rates or domestic supply — it is trade policy.

Singapore's GDP growth in 2025 was significantly boosted by front-loading of exports ahead of anticipated US tariffs. If a material slowdown in global trade flows affects Singapore's electronics, financial services, and professional sector employment — the sectors that underpin the household incomes supporting property demand — the picture changes.

The April 2025 "Liberation Day" tariff announcements already triggered capital flow volatility that widened the SORA-SOFR spread unexpectedly. A sustained US-China-EU trade contraction is the scenario most likely to soften Singapore property demand meaningfully. It is not the base case, but it deserves a line in your risk assessment.

The Bottom Line for Q1 2026

Singapore's property market enters Q1 2026 in a state of measured momentum — not frothy, not correcting. Demand is structurally supported by domestic upgraders with unlocked HDB equity. Supply is moderating. Rates are falling. New launches are clearing well above 80% where product, price, and location align.

The buyers who are thinking clearly are not asking "will prices go up?" They are asking "which specific asset, in which specific location, at which specific quantum, makes the most sense for my life stage, holding horizon, and financial position?"

That is the conversation worth having before the next window closes.

📲 WhatsApp James at 91111173 CEA Licensed Property Consultant · PropNex · mychoicehomez.com · Replies within the day

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Meta Title: Lentor New Launch Condos 2026: Full Tracker — Prices, Sales and What's Still Available Meta Description: Six launches. 94% sold. Lentor Modern has TOPped. Here's the complete 2026 tracker of every Lentor Hills project — prices, sell-through rates, and what comes next. Excerpt: Six launches. Nearly 3,000 units. A 94% sell-through rate. Lentor Modern has keys in owners' hands. The precinct that didn't exist four years ago is now Singapore's most closely watched OCR estate. Here's the complete 2026 state-of-play.

Data & Disclaimer

All data is sourced from URA Realis, EdgeProp, UOB Global Economics & Markets Research (January 2026), StackedHomes, and market reports from PropNex, ERA, and Huttons as at March 2026. Specific developer insights provided by GuocoLand, Hong Leong Holdings, and Kingsford Development.

Note: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Always perform your own due diligence or consult a qualified professional before making property decisions.