The Price Floor — Thomson Reserve vs Dunearn House vs Lentor Gardens

A low land cost is not automatically the safer bet, and a high land cost is not automatically the riskier one — context decides which. Lentor Gardens' $920 psf/ppr land cost is already proven: the project launched, cleared 54% on day one, and the transacted price came in above what the land cost alone predicted. That is the strongest kind of price-floor evidence there is — a real market clearing price, not a modelled estimate. Dunearn House's $1,410 psf/ppr looks aggressive in isolation, but the adjacent Site 2 land parcel already bid $1,625 psf/ppr — meaning the next comparable launch in that micro-corridor is contractually likely to cost more, not less, which supports Dunearn House's price floor even though its land cost is the highest of the three. Thomson Reserve's $1,178 psf/ppr sits inside an already-established Lentor–Bright Hill corridor range, giving it the least individually distinguishing story of the three, but also the least basis-risk: it is priced consistently with its neighbours, not an outlier in either direction.

Do not treat land cost as a standalone signal — read it against what it bought. Lentor Gardens' land cost is the cheapest and the most validated, because the market has already spoken. Dunearn House's land cost is the highest but the best-supported by a real adjacent comparable. Thomson Reserve is the safest average of the three, not the most exciting number on this page, and that is not a criticism — it is exactly what a buyer prioritising capital preservation over a bargain-hunting story should want.