Most buyers compare prices, layouts and MRT distance. Very few ask whether they can comfortably hold the property through interest rate changes, career changes, or retirement.
- Holding pressure
- Financial resilience
- Retirement suitability
- Potential risk areas
Every agent pitching you Dunearn House will show you the psf. Almost none of them will show you the land cost maths that forces that psf to be what it is — and what it means for the lowest price this project can realistically trade at if you ever need to sell in a down market.
Dunearn House was awarded at $1,410 psf/ppr in July 2025. At a gross plot ratio of 2.4, with construction costs, professional fees, and financing, the developer's breakeven is estimated at $2,600–$2,700 psf. The base-case launch price of ~$3xxx psf implies a developer margin of approximately 10–15%. The adjacent second Dunearn site — already awarded at $1,625 psf/ppr — sets the next comparable floor. When that project launches in 2H 2027 at an estimated $3,200–$3,300 psf, buyers who entered Dunearn House at $3xxx psf will be holding at a precinct discount, not a premium.
The Land Cost — What the Numbers Actually Say
The Dunearn Road GLS tender closed on 26 June 2025 with nine bids — one of the most competitive prime private residential tenders in the Core Central Region in years. The winning consortium of Frasers Property, Sekisui House, and CSC Land paid $491,454,208 for a site of 13,491.9 sqm with a maximum permissible GFA of 32,381 sqm. That converts to $1,410 psf/ppr.
Two things about the bid outcome deserve attention. First, the winning bid was only 3.7% above CDL's second-place offer. When the top five bids span a 10% range, the market has already formed a coherent view of end-pricing and residual land value. This is not a single outlier bidding aggressively — it is developer consensus on what the land is worth. Second, the same Frasers/CSC/Sekisui consortium that won Dunearn House came back ten months later and submitted the second-highest bid for the adjacent site — at $1,576 psf/ppr. They were willing to pay 11.8% more for the neighbouring parcel. That is not a coincidence. It is a stated conviction in the precinct.
The CCR Land Cost Ladder — Where $1,410 Sits
Land cost is not an abstract number. It is the floor that every future transaction in a development must clear. Understand where $1,410 psf/ppr sits on the District 10/11 GLS ladder and you understand the pricing logic for every unit at Dunearn House.
Sources: URA tender award announcements; EdgeProp. Psf/ppr figures from official URA records.
The ladder reveals something important: Dunearn House at $1,410 psf/ppr is not the cheapest land in the corridor. Skye at Holland at $1,285 psf/ppr was cheaper — and that project launched at $2,953 psf average, selling 99% on launch day. But Dunearn House is meaningfully below what has been paid since: Holland Link at $1,432, Holland Plain at $1,491, the adjacent second site at $1,625, and Newton at $1,820. Every site awarded after Dunearn House in this corridor has been more expensive. That is the price floor argument in one sentence.
Deep DiveBreakeven Maths+ Read →− Collapse
The Developer's Breakeven — What Forces the Launch Price
Land cost is only one component of what a developer needs to recover. To understand the minimum viable launch price, the full development cost stack must be modelled. The figures below are estimates based on published analyst post-tender commentary and industry benchmarks. They are not developer disclosures.
These are derived estimates based on post-tender analyst commentary (CBRE, SRI) and industry benchmarks. They are not developer disclosures. Financing cost includes developer ABSD (35% on land value) which is remissible if the project sells out within 5 years of land acquisition. Construction cost estimates reflect CCR high-specification standards with GFA harmonisation. Actual figures will differ.
At ~$3xxx psf launch, the developer is working on an implied gross margin of approximately 10–13% — tight by historical CCR standards, but consistent with the post-harmonisation development economics where saleable area efficiency has improved even as land costs have risen. The practical implication for buyers: the developer cannot afford to discount heavily from launch. The floor is real and it is supported by cost economics, not just marketing positioning.
Deep DiveAdjacent Site+ Read →− Collapse
What the Land Cost Doesn't Tell You — The Adjacent Site Problem
The $1,410 psf/ppr land cost for Dunearn House is widely cited as evidence of price support. It is — but it is not the full picture. The adjacent second Dunearn site, awarded to Wing Tai and Metro Holdings at $1,625 psf/ppr, creates a more complex dynamic that most buyers miss.
That second site is 15.2% more expensive in land cost. It is expected to launch in 2H 2027 at an estimated $3,200–$3,300 psf — roughly $200–$300 psf above Dunearn House's anticipated ASP. On the surface, this is excellent news for Dunearn House buyers: a comparable directly next door repricing the precinct upward. But look more carefully at what the second site is paying for.
The second Dunearn Road site carries more prescriptive development conditions than Dunearn House: a mandatory supermarket of at least 10,764 sq ft GFA (must operate for 10+ years from TOP), an Early Childhood Development Centre of at least 6,458 sq ft GFA (same operating obligation), and reduced parking at approximately 60% of the maximum allowable. These conditions add development cost that does not translate into residential value. The $215 psf/ppr premium Wing Tai paid partially reflects the site's larger area and community obligation obligations — not purely a market conviction that D11 Turf City residential values have repriced by 15%. Buyers should model this carefully when benchmarking the second project's eventual launch price against Dunearn House's resale trajectory.
The more honest framing: Dunearn House at $1,410 psf/ppr and the second site at $1,625 psf/ppr are not perfectly comparable. The second site is larger, has more commercial obligations, and its $3,200–$3,300 psf ASP will partly reflect those obligations. What this means for Dunearn House resale pricing is that the second site's launch establishes a precinct benchmark — but Dunearn House will trade at a discount to that benchmark in resale, not at parity, because it is the older leasehold with a shorter remaining lease. Whether that discount is 5% or 15% depends on how the precinct develops and how fast Turf City's amenity base matures. The full exit analysis is in Part 6: The Exit.
If you'd rather talk through right-sizing, co-purchase or investment fit directly — message James on WhatsApp with your situation and he'll respond same day.
Deep DiveHistorical Comparable Table+ Read →− Collapse
Historical Comparable — Fourth Avenue Residences as the Reference Point
The last major D10/D11 leasehold GLS award before Dunearn House was Fourth Avenue Residences — awarded at $1,540 psf/ppr in December 2017, launched in January 2019, and completed in 2022. Dunearn House's land cost of $1,410 psf/ppr is 8.4% below Fourth Avenue's benchmark — a fact that post-tender analysts noted reflects today's more challenging development economics (higher construction costs, reduced GFA efficiency under harmonisation) rather than a weaker site.
| Project | District | Land Cost | Launch PSF | Current Resale PSF | Appreciation | Tenure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fourth Avenue Residences | D10 | $1,540 psf/ppr | ~$2,300 psf | $2,520–$2,674 psf | ~9–16% | 99LH |
| Skye at Holland | D10 | $1,285 psf/ppr | $2,953 psf avg | New launch (2025) | — | 99LH |
| Holland Link | D10 | $1,432 psf/ppr | TBC 2026/27 | — | — | 99LH |
| Dunearn House | D11 | $1,410 psf/ppr | ~$3xxx psf (est.) | — | New launch 2026 | 99LH |
| Dunearn Site 2 (Wing Tai) | D11 | $1,625 psf/ppr | ~$3,200–$3,300 psf (est.) | — | Launch 2H 2027 | 99LH |
Sources: URA tender award announcements; CBRE Singapore Research; SRI Research; EdgeProp. Launch and resale PSF figures are based on published transaction data or post-tender analyst estimates. Not investment advice.
Fourth Avenue Residences is the most instructive data point available. Launched at ~$2,300 psf in 2019, it has transacted in resale at a median of $2,520–$2,674 psf through 2025 — an appreciation of 9–16% over five to six years. That is modest by OCR standards but consistent with a CCR leasehold that was bought at a rational price without speculative stretch. Dunearn House is launching at a meaningfully higher base (~$3xxx psf vs $2,300 psf at Fourth Avenue) — reflecting both the general market re-rating of CCR stock since 2019 and the GFA harmonisation that has compressed advertised strata psf relative to actual liveable space. Whether Dunearn House can replicate Fourth Avenue's appreciation trajectory from a higher base is the question every buyer should model before signing. The pricing test for whether $3xxx psf is defensible against current resale comps is in Part 3: The Pricing Test.
James's Position — What the Price Floor Means for Your Decision
The land cost floor at Dunearn House is genuine and it is supported by the data. At $1,410 psf/ppr, with a breakeven of ~$2,600–$2,700 psf and a launch price of ~$3xxx psf, there is a real developer cost base underpinning the pricing — this is not a speculative stretch. The adjacent second site at $1,625 psf/ppr adds another layer of price support that will become visible when that project launches in 2H 2027.
But the price floor argument is not the same as a capital appreciation argument. Price support means the floor is real — not that the ceiling is high. At $3xxx psf for a 99-year leasehold, Dunearn House is entering at a level where meaningful resale appreciation requires either a strong precinct transformation narrative to materialise on schedule, or a further market re-rating of CCR leasehold stock. Both are plausible. Neither is guaranteed.
The buyer for whom the price floor argument works best is the one who is not buying primarily for capital gain. The right-sizer who reduces outgoings by $2,000–$3,000 a month by moving from a landed property. The parent who co-purchases with a child and structures the asset for a 15-year hold. The retirement-capital buyer who wants a well-located CCR asset that covers the retirement horizon without the legacy complications of a 99LH passed down decades later. For these buyers, the floor matters more than the ceiling — and the floor here is credible.
The land cost number in isolation doesn't tell you much. What tells you something is the bid spread. When nine developers compete for a site and the top five bids are within a 10% range of each other, it is not one aggressive bidder setting the price — it is the market forming a consensus view on what the land and its implied end-product are worth.
The fact that the same Frasers/CSC/Sekisui consortium then came back and bid $1,576 psf/ppr for the adjacent site — the second-highest offer — tells me more about their conviction in this precinct than any marketing deck ever could. Developers who have already won a site and immediately try to buy the neighbouring plot are not speculating. They are executing a strategy. For a buyer trying to assess price floor credibility, that is the most honest signal available.
If you want to work through the cost stack, the breakeven maths, and what a realistic resale scenario looks like for the unit type you are considering — I can run that with you before you commit. WhatsApp me at 91111173.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the land cost for Dunearn House and how does it compare to nearby projects?+ Read →− Hide
What is the minimum price Dunearn House can realistically sell at — the price floor?+ Read →− Hide
Why did the adjacent Dunearn site sell for 15% more in land cost?+ Read →− Hide
How does Dunearn House's land cost compare to the PropNex GLS pipeline for 2026–2027?+ Read →− Hide
Does the price floor argument mean Dunearn House is a safe investment?+ Read →− Hide
Sources + Show all 5 →− Hide
- URA — Tender Award, Dunearn Road GLS Site (Dunearn House), 3 July 2025
- URA — Tender Award, Second Dunearn Road GLS Site, 4 May 2026
- EdgeProp — Fourth Avenue Residences Resale Transactions, median $2,520 psf (2024–May 2025), CBRE
- The Edge Singapore — Dunearn Road GLS Site Draws Six Bids, Wing Tai-Metro on Top, May 2026
- PropNex Research — Rising Land Cost Effect 2025–2027 Pipeline (Sales Deck)
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