The Land Cost — What the Numbers Actually Say
The Dunearn Road GLS tender closed on 26 June 2025 with nine bids — one of the most competitive prime private residential tenders in the Core Central Region in years. The winning consortium of Frasers Property, Sekisui House, and CSC Land paid $491,454,208 for a site of 13,491.9 sqm with a maximum permissible GFA of 32,381 sqm. That converts to $1,410 psf/ppr. The full GLS pipeline for this corridor and comparable sites is tracked at the GLS Tracker.
Two things about the bid outcome deserve attention. First, the winning bid was only 3.7% above CDL's second-place offer. When the top five bids span a 10% range, the market has already formed a coherent view of end-pricing and residual land value. This is not a single outlier bidding aggressively — it is developer consensus on what the land is worth. Second, the same Frasers/CSC/Sekisui consortium that won Dunearn House came back ten months later and submitted the second-highest bid for the adjacent site — at $1,576 psf/ppr. They were willing to pay 11.8% more for the neighbouring parcel. That is not a coincidence. It is a stated conviction in the precinct.
The CCR Land Cost Ladder — Where $1,410 Sits
Land cost is not an abstract number. It is the floor that every future transaction in a development must clear. Understand where $1,410 psf/ppr sits on the District 10/11 GLS ladder and you understand the pricing logic for every unit at Dunearn House.
Sources: URA tender award announcements; EdgeProp; ERA Singapore Research. Psf/ppr figures from official URA records.
The ladder reveals something important: Dunearn House at $1,410 psf/ppr is not the cheapest land in the corridor. Skye at Holland at $1,285 psf/ppr was cheaper — and that project launched at $2,953 psf average, selling 99% on launch day. But Dunearn House is meaningfully below what has been paid since: Holland Link at $1,432, Holland Plain at $1,491, the adjacent second site at $1,625, and Newton at $1,820. Every site awarded after Dunearn House in this corridor has been more expensive. That is the price floor argument in one sentence.
The Developer's Breakeven — What Forces the Launch Price
Land cost is only one component of what a developer needs to recover. To understand the minimum viable launch price, the full development cost stack must be modelled. The figures below are estimates based on published analyst post-tender commentary and industry benchmarks. They are not developer disclosures.
These are derived estimates based on post-tender analyst commentary (CBRE, SRI, cos.sg) and industry benchmarks. They are not developer disclosures. Financing cost includes developer ABSD (35% on land value) which is remissible if the project sells out within 5 years of land acquisition. Construction cost estimates reflect CCR high-specification standards with GFA harmonisation. Actual figures will differ.
At ~$3,000 psf launch, the developer is working on an implied gross margin of approximately 10–13% — tight by historical CCR standards, but consistent with the post-harmonisation development economics where saleable area efficiency has improved even as land costs have risen. The practical implication for buyers: the developer cannot afford to discount heavily from launch. The floor is real and it is supported by cost economics, not just marketing positioning.
What the Land Cost Doesn't Tell You — The Adjacent Site Problem
The $1,410 psf/ppr land cost for Dunearn House is widely cited as evidence of price support. It is — but it is not the full picture. The adjacent second Dunearn site, awarded to Wing Tai and Metro Holdings at $1,625 psf/ppr, creates a more complex dynamic that most buyers miss.
That second site is 15.2% more expensive in land cost. It is expected to launch in 2H 2027 at an estimated $3,200–$3,300 psf — roughly $200–$300 psf above Dunearn House's anticipated ASP. On the surface, this is excellent news for Dunearn House buyers: a comparable directly next door repricing the precinct upward. But look more carefully at what the second site is paying for.
The second Dunearn Road site carries more prescriptive development conditions than Dunearn House: a mandatory supermarket of at least 10,764 sq ft GFA (must operate for 10+ years from TOP), an Early Childhood Development Centre of at least 6,458 sq ft GFA (same operating obligation), and reduced parking at approximately 60% of the maximum allowable. These conditions add development cost that does not translate into residential value. The $215 psf/ppr premium Wing Tai paid partially reflects the site's larger area and community obligation obligations — not purely a market conviction that D11 Turf City residential values have repriced by 15%. Buyers should model this carefully when benchmarking the second project's eventual launch price against Dunearn House's resale trajectory.
The more honest framing: Dunearn House at $1,410 psf/ppr and the second site at $1,625 psf/ppr are not perfectly comparable. The second site is larger, has more commercial obligations, and its $3,200–$3,300 psf ASP will partly reflect those obligations. What this means for Dunearn House resale pricing is that the second site's launch establishes a precinct benchmark — but Dunearn House will trade at a discount to that benchmark in resale, not at parity, because it is the older leasehold with a shorter remaining lease. Whether that discount is 5% or 15% depends on how the precinct develops and how fast Turf City's amenity base matures. The full exit analysis is in Part 6: The Exit.
Historical Comparable — Fourth Avenue Residences as the Reference Point
The last major D10/D11 leasehold GLS award before Dunearn House was Fourth Avenue Residences — awarded at $1,540 psf/ppr in December 2017, launched in January 2019, and completed in 2022. Dunearn House's land cost of $1,410 psf/ppr is 8.4% below Fourth Avenue's benchmark — a fact that post-tender analysts noted reflects today's more challenging development economics (higher construction costs, reduced GFA efficiency under harmonisation) rather than a weaker site.
| Project | District | Land Cost | Launch PSF | Current Resale PSF | Appreciation | Tenure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fourth Avenue Residences | D10 | $1,540 psf/ppr | ~$2,300 psf | $2,520–$2,674 psf | ~9–16% | 99LH |
| Skye at Holland | D10 | $1,285 psf/ppr | $2,953 psf avg | New launch (2025) | — | 99LH |
| Holland Link | D10 | $1,432 psf/ppr | TBC 2026/27 | — | — | 99LH |
| Dunearn House | D11 | $1,410 psf/ppr | ~$3,000 psf (est.) | — | New launch 2026 | 99LH |
| Dunearn Site 2 (Wing Tai) | D11 | $1,625 psf/ppr | ~$3,200–$3,300 psf (est.) | — | Launch 2H 2027 | 99LH |
Sources: URA tender award announcements; CBRE Singapore Research; SRI Research; EdgeProp; ERA Research (Apr 2026). Launch and resale PSF figures are based on published transaction data or post-tender analyst estimates. Not investment advice.
Fourth Avenue Residences is the most instructive data point available. Launched at ~$2,300 psf in 2019, it has transacted in resale at a median of $2,520–$2,674 psf through 2025 — an appreciation of 9–16% over five to six years. That is modest by OCR standards but consistent with a CCR leasehold that was bought at a rational price without speculative stretch. Dunearn House is launching at a meaningfully higher base (~$3,000 psf vs $2,300 psf at Fourth Avenue) — reflecting both the general market re-rating of CCR stock since 2019 and the GFA harmonisation that has compressed advertised strata psf relative to actual liveable space. Whether Dunearn House can replicate Fourth Avenue's appreciation trajectory from a higher base is the question every buyer should model before signing. The pricing test for whether $3,000 psf is defensible against current resale comps is in Part 3: The Pricing Test.
James's Position — What the Price Floor Means for Your Decision
The land cost floor at Dunearn House is genuine and it is supported by the data. At $1,410 psf/ppr, with a breakeven of ~$2,600–$2,700 psf and a launch price of ~$3,000 psf, there is a real developer cost base underpinning the pricing — this is not a speculative stretch. The adjacent second site at $1,625 psf/ppr adds another layer of price support that will become visible when that project launches in 2H 2027.
But the price floor argument is not the same as a capital appreciation argument. Price support means the floor is real — not that the ceiling is high. At $3,000 psf for a 99-year leasehold, Dunearn House is entering at a level where meaningful resale appreciation requires either a strong precinct transformation narrative to materialise on schedule, or a further market re-rating of CCR leasehold stock. Both are plausible. Neither is guaranteed.
The buyer for whom the price floor argument works best is the one who is not buying primarily for capital gain. The right-sizer who reduces outgoings by $2,000–$3,000 a month by moving from a landed property. The parent who co-purchases with a child and structures the asset for a 15-year hold. The retirement-capital buyer who wants a well-located CCR asset that covers the retirement horizon without the legacy complications of a 99LH passed down decades later. For these buyers, the floor matters more than the ceiling — and the floor here is credible.
Frequently Asked Questions
- URA — Tender Award, Dunearn Road GLS Site (Dunearn House), 3 July 2025
- URA — Tender Award, Second Dunearn Road GLS Site, 4 May 2026
- cos.sg — Dunearn House GLS Analysis: Expected Launch Price, Land Cost & First-Mover Advantage, May 2026
- EdgeProp — CSC Land, Sekisui House and Frasers JV Submits Top Bid $1,410 psf/ppr, June 2025
- EdgeProp — Fourth Avenue Residences Resale Transactions, median $2,520 psf (2024–May 2025), CBRE
- The Edge Singapore — Dunearn Road GLS Site Draws Six Bids, Wing Tai-Metro on Top, May 2026
- ERA Singapore Research — Dunearn Road (2H 2025 GLS) Site Analysis, April 2026
- ERA Singapore Research — Holland Plain GLS Site Analysis, May 2026 (Fourth Ave Residences resale median $2,674 psf)
- StackedHomes — Top Bid of $533M for Second Bukit Timah Residential Site, April 2026
- CBRE Singapore Research — Post-tender ASP estimate: $2,900–$3,000 psf, June 2025
- SRI (Singapore Realtors Inc.) — Post-tender ASP estimate: $2,910–$3,100 psf, June 2025
- PropNex Research — Rising Land Cost Effect 2025–2027 Pipeline (Sales Deck)
- Knight Frank Singapore — Post-tender commentary, $1,410 psf/ppr context, June 2025
This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Property investments involve risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Development cost estimates are derived from published analyst commentary and industry benchmarks — they are not developer disclosures and may differ materially from actual figures. Readers should seek independent advice from licensed professionals before making any property or financial decision. James Ong is a licensed real estate salesperson (CEA Reg No. R008385F) with PropNex Realty Pte Ltd and is not a licensed financial adviser.
