Buyer Guide | Government Land Sales | October 2026
If you want to know whether a new launch is fairly priced before a salesperson tells you it is, look at what the developer paid for the land. Most new condos in Singapore start as a government land sale, and the price, the number of bidders and the gap to the next bid are all public. Read them before the preview, and you walk into the showflat with your own ceiling instead of the developer's.
Direct answer
On the 2025 and 2026 launches I track, the launch average has landed at about 2.1 to 2.6 times the land price in psf ppr. Thomson Reserve's land cost $1,178 psf ppr and its prices start at $2,608 psf; Dunearn House's land cost $1,410 and it launched at an average of $3,140. Use the land price times about 2.2 as a rough guide to a fair launch average, and ask why if a project prices well above 2.5 times its land.
Why land prices should shape your offer
Use land prices if you are buying a new launch and want an independent check on whether the price is fair. They matter less for resale homes, where recent transactions are the better guide.
The land sets the floor
Construction costs are broadly similar for projects of the same type, so the biggest difference between two launches' costs is usually the land. When Lentor Central's land cost $1,278 psf ppr against $920 for Lentor Gardens a year earlier, analysts quoted by EdgeProp expected Lentor Signature to launch from about $2,600 psf, against Lentor Gardens Residences' $2,350 average. The land price told buyers roughly what to expect a year before the showflat opened.
The next site tells you where prices are heading
When a nearby site sells for much more, later launches nearby are likely to price higher. The second Dunearn Road site went for $1,625 psf ppr, 15% more than Dunearn House's land (EdgeProp). That supports Dunearn House's price. It does not guarantee your resale price, but it is a useful signal.
The bids show how confident developers are
URA publishes every bid. Five or six bids close together suggest developers agree on the site's value. A winning bid far above the next one, such as Sim Lian's Holland Link bid at 22% above the runner-up (EdgeProp), shows one developer is much more confident than the rest. A single bid can mean a site others found hard, or simply a developer with a plan.
When land prices tell you less
- You are buying resale. Recent transactions in the same building are a better guide.
- The project is unusual. Integrated developments, freehold sites and luxury towers can price well away from the usual multiple.
- The market has moved. A land price from two years ago may not reflect today's demand.
Land price against launch price, 2025 to 2026
| Project | Land (psf ppr) | Launch (psf) | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thomson Reserve | $1,178 | From $2,608 (starting price) | 2.2x at entry |
| Springleaf Residence | $905 | $2,175 average | 2.4x |
| Lentor Gardens Residences | $920 | $2,350 average | 2.6x |
| Zyon Grand | $1,202 | $3,050 average | 2.5x |
| Dunearn House | $1,410 | $3,140 average | 2.2x |
| River Modern | $1,420 | About $3,266 average | 2.3x |
| Amberwood at Holland | $1,432 | $3,019 average | 2.1x |
Sources: EdgeProp, The Edge Singapore, Yahoo News Singapore and URA (land tenders and launch results, 2025 to 2026); CapitaLand Development and UOL Group (Thomson Reserve starting prices, October 2026). Multiples are my own arithmetic. Thomson Reserve's figure uses the starting price, so its average will be higher.
Land-led pricing, recent deals, or both?
Land prices are one of three checks. Use them together.
What the market isn't telling you
1. A simple formula can mislead you
Rules of thumb that divide the land price by a fixed share do not hold for every project. An earlier version of this guide used one, and it would have put Thomson Reserve's floor above its actual starting price. Use a range, and check it against nearby launches.
2. Land prices are rising, and so are launch prices
Peck Hay Road went for $1,865 psf ppr in June 2026, and analysts quoted by The Edge Singapore expected it to average about $3,450 to $3,550 psf. River Valley Green Parcel C went for $1,730, 21.8% above River Modern's land (EdgeProp). When land prices rise this fast, units still on sale from projects built on cheaper land often look like better value.
3. A high multiple needs a reason
Lentor Gardens Residences and Zyon Grand both launched at about 2.5 times their land price or more, and both sold well. They had reasons: the cheapest land in Lentor, and an MRT station in the building. If a project is priced well above 2.5 times its land and has no such reason, ask harder questions before you book.
Strengths and limits of the land check
- Public and available long before launch
- Independent of developer marketing
- Shows where nearby prices are heading
- Bid counts show developer confidence
- Easy to calculate yourself
- Multiples vary from about 2.1 to 2.6
- Less useful for unusual or luxury projects
- Old land prices may not match today's market
- Says nothing about layout or facing
- Does not predict resale prices
Would you rather
A. Buy at a launch priced at about 2.2 times its land, where the next site nearby cost more.
B. Buy at a launch priced at about 2.6 times its land, with no MRT link or other clear reason for the premium.
James picks A. You start with more room between your price and what later launches will need to charge. A high multiple can still be worth paying, but only for something you will use every day, such as an MRT station in the building.
What I think you should do
Before any preview, look up the site's land price on URA's website or my GLS Tracker, multiply it by about 2.2, and treat that as a rough fair average. Then check the nearest new launches and adjusted resale prices. If all three agree, you have a ceiling. Set it before you walk into the showflat.
For how floor areas differ between older and newer projects, read my GFA harmonisation guide. For financing, speak to a licensed financial adviser for advice specific to your situation.
Frequently asked questions
How do I estimate a new launch price from the land price?+ Read- Hide
On the 2025 and 2026 launches I track, the launch average has been about 2.1 to 2.6 times the land price in psf ppr. Multiplying the land price by about 2.2 gives a rough fair average. Check it against nearby launches and adjusted resale prices before relying on it.
What does psf ppr mean?+ Read- Hide
Price per square foot per plot ratio. It is the land price divided by the maximum gross floor area that can be built, so you can compare sites of different sizes. For example, Thomson Reserve's land cost $1,178 psf ppr, including the lease top-up.
What does the number of bids tell me?+ Read- Hide
Several bids close together suggest developers agree on the site's value. A top bid far above the next, such as Sim Lian's Holland Link bid at 22% above the runner-up, shows one developer is much more confident. A single bid can mean a difficult site or a developer with a clear plan.
When is the land price not a good guide?+ Read- Hide
For resale homes, where recent transactions are better, for unusual projects such as integrated developments or luxury towers, and when the land was bought years ago in a different market.
Who should not rely on GLS land prices?+ Read- Hide
Resale buyers, buyers of luxury or integrated projects that price well away from the usual multiple, and anyone choosing between units in the same project, where layout, floor and facing matter more than land cost.
Where can I find GLS land prices?+ Read- Hide
URA publishes tender results, including every bid, on its website. EdgeProp, The Edge Singapore and Yahoo News Singapore report them when tenders close. My GLS Tracker lists recent sites.
Going to a preview soon?
Tell me the project. I'll check its land price, the bids, nearby launches and adjusted resale prices, and give you a ceiling before you go. You get the working in writing. No pitch.
WhatsApp JamesSources+ Show all 11- Hide
- URA, Government Land Sales programme and tender results
- URA, tender awards for Upper Thomson Road (Parcel A), Lentor Central, Holland Link and Peck Hay Road, 2025 to 2026
- EdgeProp, GuocoLand-Hong Leong JV submit sole bid for Upper Thomson Road GLS site at $905 psf ppr
- EdgeProp, GuocoLand sells 92% of units at Springleaf Residence at an average of $2,175 psf
- CapitaLand Development and UOL Group, Thomson Reserve news release, 15 October 2026
- EdgeProp, Lentor Gardens Residences launch day and Lentor Central tender, 2026
- EdgeProp, Zyon Grand launch and Zion Road Parcel A land, 2025
- Yahoo News Singapore and EdgeProp, Dunearn House launch and second Dunearn Road site, 2026
- EdgeProp and The Edge Singapore, River Modern launch and River Valley Green Parcels B and C, 2025 to 2026
- EdgeProp, Sim Lian Holland Link bid and Amberwood at Holland launch, 2025 to 2026
- EdgeProp and The Edge Singapore, Peck Hay Road GLS tender, June 2026
Disclaimer & Licensing+-
This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Property investments involve risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should seek independent advice from licensed professionals before making any property or financial decision. James Ong is a licensed real estate salesperson (CEA Reg No. R008385F) with PropNex Realty Pte Ltd and is not a licensed financial adviser.
James Ong | CEA Reg No. R008385F | PropNex Realty Pte Ltd
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